“Experts vary in estimates, and there is no precise probability. Some analysts describe the risk as low but non-zero. Because consequences are extreme, even low-probability risks warrant serious attention.
Is nuclear war more likely now than during the Cold War?
Most analysts assess current risks are elevated compared to the 1990s-2010s but still below Cold War peaks like the Cuban Missile Crisis or early 1980s tensions. However, direct comparison is difficult as threat dynamics have changed (multiple players, new technologies, different scenarios).
Would any country actually use nuclear weapons?
The greatest concern is use under extreme circumstances – a losing war, existential threat to a government, or miscalculation. While deliberate first strikes are unlikely, scenarios involving tactical nuclear weapons to prevent military defeat cannot be ruled out. The 80-year taboo on use (since 1945) remains a powerful restraint.
Major Risk Factors
- Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Major war involving a nuclear power in the post-Cold War era
Confirmed nuclear rhetoric from Russian leadership
Risk of escalation involving NATO
Suspension of arms control cooperation - U.S.-China Tensions
Taiwan as potential flashpoint
China nuclear arsenal expansion
South China Sea disputes
Technological competition - North Korea
Growing nuclear and missile capabilities
Assessed ICBM capability to reach the U.S. mainland
Governmental stability concerns
Failed diplomacy - Regional Tensions
India-Pakistan rivalry
U.S.-Iran active military conflict with strikes on nuclear infrastructure
Multiple states with nuclear ambitions - Technical/Systemic Risks
Cyber vulnerabilities in command systems
Hypersonic weapons reducing warning time
Automated decision systems in military workflows
Historical near-misses from technical errors
Source: defconlevel.com
