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What’s next for Venezuela and Iran?

Venezuela and Iran have developed a strong relationship, particularly in areas like oil production and military cooperation, often positioning themselves as allies against U.S. influence. This partnership has intensified under leaders like Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, with both countries facing significant Western sanctions.  Wikipedia, geopoliticalmonitor.com.

“Thus far, the pattern of concrete actions indicate very confined limits for direct intervention. Mr.Trump has decapitated the regime in Venezuela only to leave the regime in place. And bombed the regime in Iran with the same outcome.”— Forbes

Context and Opinion: Political science professor John Mearsheimer discussed President Trump’s actions in Venezuela and Iran at an event hosted by the Chicago Center for Contemporary Theory [in January].

The Chicago Center for Contemporary Theory (3CT) hosted a talk by John Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science, on Thursday about the U.S. government’s January 3 capture of President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro and his wife First Lady Cilia Flores.

His lecture, followed by 45 minutes of Q&A, covered three overarching topics: President Donald Trump’s overall approach to using military force, the invasion of Venezuela, and the recent protests in Iran.

Mearsheimer, who has taught at the University since 1982 and is known for his theory of offensive realism in international relations, focused on Trump’s selective willingness to use military force to achieve foreign policy objectives. While Trump shies away from conflict with “great powers” like China and Russia, according to Mearsheimer, he threatens “middle and lower powers” and has attacked seven nations in his second term.

“He’s using military force liberally, with a light touch, and that allows him to use it often,” Mearsheimer said.

Trump justified the special forces operation in Venezuela with the Monroe Doctrine—an 1823 warning against European interference in the Western Hemisphere—which Mearsheimer believes is inapplicable.

Trump initially alleged that the invasion was a response to narcoterrorism, also claiming that “hostile regimes” were gaining influence in Latin America, notionally violating the Monroe Doctrine. Mearsheimer rejected this claim, noting that, while Russia and China have formed economic ties in the region, including in Venezuela, there is no evidence of military alliances. “The Monroe Doctrine is all about keeping military forces out of our backyard, not preventing economic intercourse,” Mearsheimer said.

When Trump Encouraged Israel to Hit Iran’s Nuclear  Facilities

While Mearsheimer initially assumed the invasion aimed to overthrow Maduro’s socialist regime, he now views it as “good old-fashioned imperialism.” But imperialism, Mearsheimer said, is “a losing enterprise,” in which the expense of resurrecting the Venezuelan oil industry will far outstrip the benefits.

Mearsheimer argued that, unlike presidents who pursued regime change to establish democratic governments, Trump has not made moves to depose Venezuela’s authoritarian government, due to what Mearsheimer views as his reluctance to put “boots on the ground.” Trump has not strongly pushed for opposition leader María Corina Machado to become acting president and has said he will ensure cooperation using economic leverage, not military force, in the future…. More